Friday, 23 March 2007

CLOSE ASTEROID FLYBY

There was an error in the text of my last email (not guilty, as I just copied & pasted!) in that a decimal point had been omitted in the estimated diameter of the asteroid! The true diameter is about 2.2km, not 22km! I reproduce most of the details here for convenience, with some further information:
Asteroid 2006 VV2 passes close to the Earth at the end of March and early April. At its closest, on March 31, it will be 0.0226 AU away (8.8 lunar distances). This will be the closest known approach by an object this intrinsically bright until May 2036, when binary asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 (H=16.4) approaches within 6 lunar distances. Observers should be able to see it through modest telescopes as it reaches 10th magnitude on March 31st and April 1st.
It will move almost due South, from Ursa Major, through Leo Minor, into Leo. Its greatest apparent motion will be on 30/31 March, when it will be moving at more than 1 minute of arc per minute of time.
Since it will be so close, parallax effects will be considerable: thus you will need to plot its position against the star background for your own location to locate it accurately. The orbital elements below can be 'plugged into' many computer programmes such as Skymap Pro, & it will then generate the track against star charts for your, or any chosen, location.
If you can't do that, you can get the same results as follows. First obtain your latitude and longitude as accurately as possible. Then visit
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2006+VV2
For a high accuracy ephemeris:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=2006%20VV2#ephemeris
Further details are on: http://homepage.ntlworld.com/roger.dymock/index.htm
If you can't get those details, look for it at the time of the close appulses to the stars identified below (" v " = visual magnitude).

Between 01:00 and 03:00 UT on March 29 the asteroid passes within 25 arc min of galaxies M82 and M81 and between 19:00 and 21:00 UT on March 31 it approaches within 3 degrees of galaxies M105, M96 and M95. A list of close appulses is given below, along with the details of a possible occultation event visible from the UK on the evening of March 31.
2006 VV2 will be a very strong radar target and observations are scheduled at Goldstone (March 27, 30, and April 1-3) and Arecibo (March 31 and April 1). VV2's physical properties are unknown, but its absolute magnitude of 16.7 suggests a diameter within a factor of two of about 2.2 km and there is roughly a 1- in- 6 chance that it is a binary system. Astrometric and photometric data are requested in support of the radar observations.

Orbital elements
Epoch 2007 Apr. 10.0
Semimajor axis, a 2.3913823 AU
Eccentricity, e 0.6029924
Inclination of orbit, i 23.63379 deg
Argument of perihelion 144.91495 deg
Long. ascending node 10.04975 deg
Mean anomaly, M 9.67407 deg
Period of orbit, P 3.70 years (1350.7 days)
Perihelion distance 0.949 AU
Aphelion distance 3.833 AU
Absolute magnitude, H 16.7

Ephemeris
Date UT RA (J2000) Decl. Delta r El. Ph. V "/min P.A.

2007 03 25 0000 00 56 22 +82 13.6 0.065 0.989 80.8 95.5 14.2 7.76 037.1
2007 03 26 0000 02 24 30 +84 43,2 0.056 0.993 83.6 93.2 13.7 10.28 058.7
2007 03 27 0000 06 11 45 +85 13.2 0.047 0.997 87.5 89.8 13.2 14.41 115.0
2007 03 28 0000 08 53 39 +80 11.0 0.039 1.001 93.2 84.6 12.6 21.14 154.8
2007 03 29 0000 09 49 31 +70 20.8 0.031 1.005 101.9 76.3 11.9 32.23 168.1
2007 03 30 0000 10 14 23 +54 42.0 0.026 1.010 115.2 63.5 11.0 48.43 173.4
2007 03 31 0000 10 28 10 +32 31.9 0.023 1.014 132.6 46.4 10.3 61.58 175.6
2007 04 01 0000 10 36 54 +08 27.3 0.024 1.019 146.9 32.4 10.0 56.00 176.4
2007 04 02 0000 10 42 58 -10 35.2 0.028 1.024 149.6 29.6 10.3 39.11 176.5

Appulses
2007 Mar 28 20:04 27 UMa (V=5.1), Asteroid (V=12.0) 6' west of star
2007 Mar 29 01:20 Messier 82 (V=9.2), Asteroid (V=11.8) 25' east of galaxy
2007 Mar 29 02:20 Messier 81 (V=7.8), Asteroid (V=11.8) 15' east of galaxy
2007 Mar 30 19:51 Beta LMi (V=4.2), Asteroid (V=10.4) 15' west of star
2007 Mar 30 22:42 30 LMi (V=4.7), Asteroid (V=10.3) 22' east of star

OCCULTATION !!!
2007 Mar 31 20:38 HIP 51892 (V=7.25), Asteroid (V=10.0)
This is a K2-type star and the track crosses the UK passing Ayr, Chester, Shrewsbury, Gloucester and Salisbury. The exact position is uncertain so observers within say 50-100 km either side of the nominal position may witness a positive event. The duration of any event is expected to be less than 0.2 sec but this can be recorded using a video camera given that the star is so bright. The drop in brightness is expected to be close to 3 magnitudes. (Roger Dymock, Director Asteroids and Remote Planets Section)
HIP 51892 also has the following alternative designations (the following information is from Skymap Pro 11):
Tycho catalog number: TYC 842-486-1
Hipparcos catalog number: HIP 51892
PPM catalog number: PPM 127542
SAO catalog number: SAO 99198
HD catalog number: HD 91785
BD number: BD +12 2235
WDS designation: BIG 1

Equatorial co-ordinates (epoch J2000.0, ICRS)
Right Ascension: 10h 36m 06.7378s
Declination: +11° 36' 52.378"

This star is a DOUBLE STAR, with the following details (position for component 1):
RA (J2000.0): 10h 36m 06.7s
Dec (J2000.0): +11° 36' 52"
Number of measurements: 13
Date of first observation: 1880
Position angle: 339°
Separation: 55.7"
Date of last observation: 2002
Position angle: 332°
Separation: 59.3"
Magnitude of first component: 7.40
Magnitude of second component: 9.67
Spectrum: K2
Proper motion in RA: -0.013 "/year
Proper motion in dec: 0.006 "/year
Secondary PM in RA: -0.085 "/year
Secondary PM in dec: 0.013 "/year
DM number: +12 2235

IRELAND: Given the present uncertainty in the track, there is a slight chance that the extreme ENE coast of N Ireland could witness this occultation - the NE coasts of Co Antrim & Co Down lie within about 100 km of the track. If the asteroid is a binary, then the chances of an occultation visible from here are slightly greater.
Any such observation would produce really valuable information, so anyone with suitable equipment should prepare to try to record it if at all possible. I'll give an update if further information becomes available.
(Even though the star is a double star, there is little chance that the G-type 9.7 mag secondary component could be occulted as seen from Ireland.)

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